Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Census population numbers seem inconsistent with school numbers

Over the last ten years, total population in our local town increased by 3% while the number of residents under 19 years of age increased by 8%.  Meanwhile, our school district has experienced a 36% increase in student population over that same period, quite a significant discrepancy.  I wouldn't expect the difference to be so large.  Lots of babies born in the last five years?  I must be missing something.  The number of out of district special education students may have increased over the last ten years, but that would only account for a small part of the discrepancy.


Municipality
2000 Total Population
2010 Total Population
Difference
Percentage Difference
Bronxville
6543
6323
-220
-3%
Eastchester
31318
32363
1045
3%
Tuckahoe
6211
6486
275
4%


Municipality
2000 Population Under 19
2010 Population Under 19
Difference
Percentage Difference
Bronxville
1902
1935
33
2%
Eastchester
7468
8093
625
8%
Tuckahoe
1450
1414
36
-3%


http://bronxville.patch.com/articles/census-data-shows-slight-increase-in-eastchester-tuckahoe-population-decrease-in-bronxville
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4 comments:

  1. BonnieMarch 30, 2011 at 9:41 AM

    Maybe fewer kids going to Catholic school as the demographics in the town shifts?

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  2. LynnGMarch 30, 2011 at 10:19 AM

    Older people selling their homes to younger families most likely. That's what we see here in Connecticut. As soon as the last child is through the system, the parents sell and move to a lower tax community.

    Also, the increase in students actually attending school may be a sign of the economy -- fewer kids leaving for private schools.

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  3. GraceMarch 30, 2011 at 10:44 AM

    Good point about fewer children attending parochial/private schools. That could certainly be a factor, but I don't think it could account for most of the difference. It makes me question the census figures.

    Plus, I think I remember hearing that Tuckahoe also has had quite an increase in students, yet their under 19 population shrunk.

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  4. BonnieMarch 30, 2011 at 3:31 PM

    Older people selling to younger doesn't explain it because according to the numbers, the number of residents under 19 only increased 8% whereas the school population increased 36%. I really think it is that fewer kids go to Catholic school in our town. The older generation that raised their kids here were mostly Italian-Americans, and some Irish-Americans. They were very likely to send their kids to Catholic school. Now, the incoming families are more likely to be professional types with careers in Manhattan. Many are Asian-American. It is just a different crowd.

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